Experts give Withdrawal Agreement less than 20% chance of success.
On 14 November 2018, the UK Government and the EU published the Withdrawal Agreement which had been negotiated by the two sides. It has to be agreed by the UK Parliament, the EU Council and the European Parliament for it to come into effect on 29 March 2019, the day the UK leaves the EU.
We asked our experts what the chances are of the Withdrawal Agreement coming into effect on Brexit day, 29 March 2019.
Here is the expert opinion.
There is clear consensus among the experts that the Withdrawal Agreement has a less than 20% chance of coming into effect on Brexit day.
If, as seems likely, this Withdrawal Agreement does not come into effect, it leaves open what will happen. One or two observed that it could be amended and then agreed.
Other scenarios include a ‘no deal’ (which was given a 31% chance in our latest Brexitometer), membership of the EEA (the ‘Norway’ scenario, which has a 30% chance according to our experts) or delaying Brexit day. All of this creates further uncertainty for artists and creative and other businesses.
This expert opinion was drawn from a broad cross-section of politicians, officials, advisers and execs from the public affairs and creative sectors. The majority were politicians (from Brussels and Westminster and from across the political spectrum).
Most of our experts have been in the role for at least 10 years.
This survey was carried out between 19 November and 3 December using an online poll.
C8 Associates is a consultancy dedicated to taking creative and digital businesses to the next level. C8 is working with clients on Brexit plans, managing risk, exploiting opportunities and validating Brexit plans.
For more detailed results from this expert opinion survey, please contact Dominic McGonigal directly at firstname.lastname@example.org
Dominic McGonigal is Chairman of C8 Associates, a consultancy dedicated to taking creative businesses to the next level. He also chairs two creative startups, CICI and JazzUK. Read more at www.c8associates.com